Sunday, 17 January 2016

The price of a Rise vote is a Unionist MSP

The number of votes cast for the major parties on the List vote in Glasgow in 2011 are as follows:

SNP                  83.109
Scottish Labour 73.031
Conservatives   12.749
Scottish Greens 12.454

Let us assume that the number of votes on the List remain constant in May, and let us further assume that the National party wins every constituency in Glasgow. 

For readers who are unaware of the arithmetic of the List count, each List seat is counted as a separate entity following the conclusion of the Constituency allocation of seats and the cumulative, progressive allocation on the List. (e.g. Seat 3 is calculated only after Seat 1 and Seat 2 is allocated). The vote is calculated by dividing the number of List votes by the number of seats already won by each party, plus one. 

The count, using the 2011 figures but adjusting for the SNP taking Maryhill and Springburn, Pollok, Provan and Rutherglen would progress as follows:

Seat 1:

SNP 83.109 / 9 constituencies + 0 list seats +1 = 8.311
Scottish Labour 73.031 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 73.031
Conservative 12.749 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.749
Scottish Greens 12.454 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.454

The winner of Seat 1 is Scottish Labour

Seat 2:

SNP 83.109 / 9 constituencies + 0 list seats +1 = 8.311
Scottish Labour 73.031 / 0 constituencies + 1 list seats +1 = 36.515,3
Conservative 12.749 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.749
Scottish Greens 12.454 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.454

The winner of Seat 2 is Scottish Labour

Seat 3:

SNP 83.109 / 9 constituencies + 0 list seats +1 = 8.311
Scottish Labour 73.031 / 0 constituencies + 2 list seats + 1 = 24.343,7
Conservative 12.749 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.749
Scottish Greens 12.454 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.454

The winner of Seat 3 is Scottish Labour

Seat 4:

SNP 83.109 / 9 constituencies + 0 list seats +1 = 8.311
Scottish Labour 73.031 / 0 constituencies + 3 list seats = 1 + 18.257,8
Conservative 12.749 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.749
Scottish Greens 12.454 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.454

The winner of Seat 4 is Scottish Labour

Seat 5:

SNP 83.109 / 9 constituencies + 0 list seats +1 = 8.311
Scottish Labour 73.031 / 0 constituencies + 4 list seats = 1 + 14.606,2
Conservative 12.749 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.749
Scottish Greens 12.454 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.454

The winner of Seat 5 is Scottish Labour

Seat 6:

SNP 83.109 / 9 constituencies + 0 list seats +1 = 8.311
Scottish Labour 73.031 / 0 constituencies + 5 list seats + 1 = 12.171,8
Conservative 12.749 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.749
Scottish Greens 12.454 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.454

The winner of Seat 6 is the Conservatives

Seat 7:

SNP 83.109 / 9 constituencies + 0 list seats +1 = 8.311
Scottish Labour 73.031 / 0 constituencies + 5 list seats = 1 = 12.171,8
Conservative 12.749 / 0 constituencies + 1 list seats + 1 = 6.374,5
Scottish Greens 12.454 / 0 constituencies + 0 list seats + 1 = 12.454

The winner of Seat 7 is the Scottish Greens

So, as you can see, Patrick Harvie is back in Parliament. Hi, Patrick! Harvie is regarded by the Yes community as a positive influence in our campaign, and as an asset to the campaign, providing non-Unionist opposition to the SNP's administration of the Scottish government. 

So, what happens if *you* go out and vote for Rise. Well, if you voted for the Scottish Greens last time, and you switch your vote to Rise this time, and just two hundred and eighty-two Green voters from last time out joined you, the consequence of that, all things being equal, would be to remove Patrick Harvie from the Scottish Parliament and replace him with the runner-up from seat 7. 

The winner of Seat 7 would be Scottish Labour, bringing them up to six List seats. In the last but one election, the consequence of a single extra seat for Scottish Labour would have been Jack McConnell winning the election and carrying on as First Minister.

The occupant of the sixth place on Scottish Labour's Glasgow list is Pauline McNeill, who is expected to lose her constituency.

That is the dreadful consequences of just 283 people voting Rise: Patrick Harvie, one of Yes's greatest assets, kicked out of parliament and a sitting Unionist MSP cheating her way back into Parliament against the will of the people. 

You can make that happen if you want to. 

I shan't be.

_________________

Sadly, the good citizens of Lothian will now be unable to vote for Solidarity founding member Pat Smith, who was third on the Rise List in that fine province. Smith has been, very quietly, dropped from the List after outrage from SSP members following the revelation that she gave false evidence in the High Court on behalf of Tommy Sheridan.

Smith's selection on the List was widely believed to have been a "you're my wife now, Dave"-style slap in the face to SSP members by the furtive "Rise Team", in order to show who was in control. 

It has now backfired on Rise's shadowy leadership, with serious questions continuing to be asked about their judgement and competence. 

Smith's removal from the List was bad news that needed to be buried. Bizarrely, with the general election less than 120 days away, The Rise Team chose to attempt to drown out their secret purging of Smith with a campaign against, er, Donald Trump. 

Their increasingly bizarre behaviour, combined with the aggression of many of their, now-panicking, followers is beginning to cause serious concern about their fitness for office.

No comments:

Post a Comment