Monday, 31 August 2015

The Unionists have already defined the date of Indyref2

There has been great discussion about the date of a possible second referendum on removing Scotland from the clutches of the Tory state.

Some of the more zealous nationalists want a referendum in the next parliament.

The Unionists are outraged (as is their wont) about any discussion of a future referendum. The people have spoken, screech our loyal chums, and thus the question must never be revisited. Of course, should the Unionists contest any Nationalist seats in May, or at any subsequent Westminster or Holyrood, or council, election, this position will be null and void.

Nicola Sturgeon and her National party, who will have most influence on the timing, are non-commital. They say a second referendum is not planned, and that this position would change only in the event of a material change in circumstances.

The Unionists - the world's angriest winners of anything - have various other positions. 

One is that there will be no referendum, ever. This position is void. The British regime has conceded the right of the people to choose the nation's constitutional position. This precedent will not be easily overturned, enshrined, as it is, in international law.

They also point to the words of former First Minister Alex Salmond, who in a personal opinion said that he believed the first referendum was a once-in-a-lifetime chance for independence. Having spent the quarter century since he became leader of the National party furiously denouncing everything he says as lies, it is interesting that now, on this point, his personal opinion must be taken as gospel, and indeed as legally binding not just on him but on all of his successors in perpetuity, regardless of either their opinion, public opinion, or any change in circumstances.

Nicola Sturgeon herself has said that her feeling is that an independence referendum would be a once in a political generation event. This has been interpreted by the Unionists to be once in an actual generation, and further interpreted as being 90 years, because an old woman down their granny's bit lived till she was 90.

But there is a legal document, voted for by all of the main Scottish Unionist parties - Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrat - and ratified by a referendum, which does specify precisely what a political generation is. It was passed in the House of Commons almost unanimously.

The Northern Ireland (1998) Act, which governs the British occupation of much of north-eastern Ireland, states that if a border poll is held, the question cannot be revisited until a political generation has expired - seven years. 

This encompasses at least one full term in both Westminster and Stormont and also takes into account massive demographic flux taking place during that period.

A seven-year plan for Scotland would mean a second referendum taking place after September 2021. Not in this Westminster parliament, and not in the National party's manifesto for May's upcoming general election.

A manifesto in the 2021 election campaign for a referendum in the first half of the parliament would meet the seven year criterion, and come shortly after the election of another Tory government Scotland rejected, on top of the sixteen years of illegitimate rule over Scotland they'd enjoyed to that point.

It would meet the seven-year criterion agreed by every Unionist party, be sufficiently after the first referendum as to be not democratically indecent. In seven years time, many of those citizens who comprise the majority of the Unionists vote will have been removed from the electoral roll, to be replaced with citizens who have known nothing but government from Holyrood.

This is why the Unionists are such angry winners: they know the only thing they won in September was time. Time and shame.

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