Saturday, 18 April 2015

Likely declaration times - 2015 General Election

I thought you may be interested in the potential running order of the results in three weeks time. Using the declaration times from the 2010 edition as a guide, I'm basing these on the fact that the constituency boundaries are unchanged, and that although an increased turnout is likely, this is unlikely to significantly expect the order of the results, even though it may push the timeframes out slightly.

The times, other than where explicated, indicate the rough time at which the constituency was declared in 2010. Minister' seats are in bold text and Labour front-benchers in bold italics. Regretfully, it's likely we'll wait until past 4am to see a minister lose his seat. I have included Jim Murphy's seat, despite his not being a member of the Cabinet, Shadow Cabinet, or Scottish Parliament Shadow Cabinet. The first big-hitter with a chance of losing their seat is Douglas Alexander, expected after 2am. Glasgow (East), Maggie Curran's seat, declared before him in 2010, but the glacial pace of counts coupled with the anticipated closeness of seats in Glasgow will see results there pushed out somewhat, despite the logical expectation that small urban seats ought to declare quickly.

0700 - polls open
2200 - polls close
2201 - exit poll (UK-wide)
2300 - first declaration in Britain (Sunderland Council has been first for five elections)
0100 - Rutherglen, and Hamilton (West)
0115 - Motherwell and Wishaw
0130 - East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
ibid -- North East Fife
ibid -- Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
ibid -- na h-Eileanan an Iar
ibid -- Lanark, and Hamilton (East)
0145 - East Lothian
ibid -- Dundee (West)
0200 - Glenrothes
ibid -- Kilmarnock and Loudon
ibid -- Falkirk
ibid -- Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
ibid -- Angus
ibid -- Dunfermline and West Fife
ibid -- Inverclyde
ibid -- Glasgow East
0215 - Paisley and Renfrewshire (South). 
ibid -- Dundee (East)
ibid -- Cumbernauld, Kilysth and Kirkintilloch (East)
ibid -- Livingston
ibid -- Airdrie and Shotts
ibid -- Glasgow (Central)
0230 - Stirling
ibid -- Mid-Lothian
ibid -- Linlithgow and Falkirk (East)
ibid -- Paisley and Renfrewshire (North)
ibid -- Perth and Perthshire (North)
ibid -- Glasgow (North)
0245 - East Renfrewshire
ibid -- Glasgow (South West)
ibid -- Edinburgh (East)
ibid -- Dunbartonshire (West)
ibid -- Glasgow (South)
0300 - Moray
ibid -- Edinburgh (South West)
ibid -- East Dunbartonshire
0315 - Glasgow (North West)
ibid -- Edinburgh (North and Leith)
ibid -- Glasgow (North East)
0330 - Ayrshire (Central)
ibid -- Edinburgh (West)
ibid -- Berwickshire, Roxburgh, and Selkirk
ibid -- Caithness, Sutherland, and Easter Ross
ibid -- Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock
0345 - Aberdeen (South)
ibid -- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale, and Tweedsdale
ibid -- Ayrshire (North and Arran)
0400 - Banff and Buchan
ibid -- Dumfries and Galloway
ibid -- Ochil and South Perthshire
0415 - Aberdeen (West and Kincardine)
ibid -- Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch, and Strathspey
ibid -- Gordon
0430 - Aberdeen (North)
0445 - Ross, Skye, and Lochaber
0500 - Edinburgh (South)
0600 - Orkney and Shetland
1400 - Argyll and Bute

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